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Predicting University Freshers’ First-Year Performance from JME Score (A Case Study in ATBU, Bauchi)

	International Journal of Scientific Research and Engineering Development (IJSRED)	Full Text:
	Published Issue : Volume-3 Issue-6
	Year of Publication : 2020
	Unique Identification Number : IJSRED-V3I6P13
	Authors : Kefas Suwa Larson, Dr. Nentawe Gurumdimma
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Abstract :

This paper presents an attempt to predict students’ academic performance (grades) in first-year based upon their scores in Joint Matriculation Examination (JME). In this study, simple linear regression is used, since two variables were majorly involved. Some sample data of JME scores and Gross Point Average (GPA) were used to build a model for predicting the mean values of the GPA when the values of JME Score are known, and to obtain the measure of errors involved in such prediction. The results show that the correlation coefficient, R is 0.137 which implies that the relationship between GPA and JME scores is very weak but positive. The coefficient of determination R2 achieved 0.0188, meaning that our regression model can only explain 1.9% of the observed variability in the data. The other 98.1% is unexplained due to many other factors that can affect a student performance while in the University. Inference statistics about the fitted regression equation were computed, which gave the following results: (F-test =1.880 vs F-critical=3.938, t-test =1.371 vs t-critical =1.984). ANOVA results also show that F-value =1.880, with F-critical value =3.938, and p-value =0.173 at a significance level of 0.05. Considering the results of the different tests conducted, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected (p>0.05). Thus, we conclude that there is no strong relationship between JME score and GPA of University Freshers.